The forecasts that spooked Boris Johnson into slowing exit from lockdown

PM’s hands tied by gloomy prediction that rapid easing would lead to even fuller hospitals than in January

Based on modelling by Warwick University and Imperial College London, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage), warned that “rapid relaxation [of restrictions] results in a very large wave of hospitalizations and deaths”.

It said that if all restrictions were lifted by 26 April (scenario one), even under the most optimistic of assumptions, including 4m doses of vaccine a week from 22 March, there would be “another wave comparable in size to January 2021, resulting in a further 62,000 to 107,000 deaths in England”. More pessimistic vaccine efficacy led to a prediction of 102,000 to 176,000 further deaths.

One thought on “The forecasts that spooked Boris Johnson into slowing exit from lockdown

  1. It is appropriate time to make a few plans for the long run and it is time to be happy. I have learn this post and if I may just I wish to recommend you some fascinating issues or advice. Maybe you can write next articles relating to this article. I want to learn even more issues approximately it!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.